Random Acts of Mind by Dones

Here’s the list of Oscar nominees, underlining my predictions for each. As always, note that I haven’t seen many of these films (I moved last year so it may take longer for my screener DVDs to reach me, ha ha); I will indicate the ones I have seen by putting them in italics. Once again, you know that you can always find the first Oscar predictions in the blogosphere right here. As I always say, you don’t really need to see all the films to know who’ll probably win. I will update this post to indicate new films I’ve seen as needed, like when I actually go see “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Reader”.

Impressions so far:
- No Clint Eastwood, no Cate Blanchett, no George Clooney. No doubt they will be presenters at the ceremony since otherwise they’ll be greatly missed.
- Robert Downey, Jr, is getting hosed for an Oscar he deserves, this time by the late great Heath Ledger (who deserves it more). Why so serious, Mr. Downey?
- Doubt is going to be skunked.

**Updated with full list of nominees, and italicized a couple titles I forgot to.

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”

One viewing of the trailer for The Wrestler cemented this pick in my mind.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”

Too much buzz for this film, not enough nominees, so I think she’ll get something for Mr. Allen.

Best animated feature film of the year
“Bolt”
“WALL-E”
“Kung Fu Panda”

WALL-E could have been a contender for Best Picture overall, just like many of the past Pixar releases. Since Beauty and the Beast scared the academy into creating the animated feature category, Pixar has won many deserved animated feature Oscars, while also getting the shaft for not being eligible for Best Picture.

Achievement in art direction
“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Duchess”
“Revolutionary Road”

Achievement in cinematography
“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Achievement in costume design
“Australia”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Duchess”
“Milk”
“Revolutionary Road”

Oscar is a big fan of period costumes; apparently it’s very difficult to design something to look like something else that’s already been made. Anyway, nothing’s more ‘period’ this year than The Duchess, but Australia might be a sleeper. I think Doubt is missing in this category.

Achievement in directing
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”

I’m reversing my statement for Best Picture here. It’s 50-50, and Gus is due.

Best documentary feature
“The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)”
“Encounters at the End of the World”
“The Garden”
“Man on Wire”
“Trouble the Water”

Best documentary short subject
“The Conscience of Nhem En”
“The Final Inch”
“Smile Pinki”
“The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306″

Achievement in film editing
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Best foreign language film of the year
“The Baader-Meinhof Complex” (Germany)
“The Class” (France)
“Departures” (Japan)
“Revanche” (Austria)
“Waltz with Bashir” (Israel)

Japan is due. Plus “Slumdog” may pull favoritism for Asia into the mix here. No really, I’m grasping at straws on this one.

Achievement in makeup
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army”

This will be BB’s one Oscar, enabling a so-so film to still be able to call itself  ‘Academy Award-winning.’ It’s deserved in this one (curious?) case.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Defiance”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“Down to Earth” from “WALL-E”
“Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire”
“O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire”

Slumdog will cancel itself out here, giving WALL-E the edge.

Best motion picture of the year
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

This could go one of two ways: Milk or Slumdog. I’m picking Slumdog due to Oscar’s propensity for sweeps (though not in recent years), but due to Prop 8 pressures in the Academy’s home state, Milk may reach the tipping point for politics over Slumdog’s sentimentality.

What about Benjamin Button, you ask? First, I’m prejudiced against it: I think it’s utterly predictable, it was made solely to try to get Brad his Oscar, and I loved the comparisons to Forrest Gump (YouTube video redacted). This may actually backfire against me, but I’ll stand by my predictions. Second, Brad Pitt hasn’t been good luck for films reaching for Oscar gold. Third, I think Slumdog is just too hot, and fourth, I really don’t hear any buzz about The CC of BB, even though it leads in overall nominations. Go read the short story instead.

Best animated short film
“La Maison en Petits Cubes”
“Lavatory – Lovestory”
“Oktapodi
“Presto”
“This Way Up”

So beloved is WALL-E that the short cartoon preceding it in theatres and included on its DVD is a shoo-in. Plus it’s really, really well done.

Best live action short film
“Auf der Strecke (On the Line)”
“Manon on the Asphalt”
“New Boy”
“The Pig”
“Spielzeugland (Toyland)”

Achievement in sound editing
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”
“Wanted”

Here in the sound categories is the major showdown between my top two contenders. I don’t think you can beat Pixar for mixing and editing all of those tracks on the floating space colony. How many individual voices did they have to mix in? A lot.

Achievement in sound mixing
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”
“Wanted”

Achievement in visual effects
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”

At last, a true toss-up. I’m going with my gut and my personal favorite here (I think Christopher Nolan got ripped off for The Dark Night not getting nominated for more non-technical Oscars. Best Picture and Director could have been possible here.)

Adapted screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”
David Hare, “The Reader”
Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”
John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”
Eric Roth, Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Original screenplay
Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”
Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”
Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Marttin McDonagh, “In Bruges”
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, “WALL-E”

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 22nd, 2009 at 9:29 am and is filed under Current Events, Movies. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.